US High-Yield Newsletter 鈥 1H鈥26

Published on 27 Jul, 2026

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US HY delivered a 2.0% total return in 1H'26, outpacing Treasuries (+0.3%) as coupon carry absorbed a modest Q1 drawdown driven by Middle East tensions, elevated Treasury yields, and a cautious Fed. Primary markets set a record pace with $219bn issued across 229 deals (vs. $151bn in 1H'25), though supply skewed decisively toward higher-quality speculative-grade credit, with B-rated issuers leading the trajectory. Spread dispersion reasserted itself: average OAS held at 175bps (BB) and 313bps (B) but widened to 925bps at CCC & below, underscoring a bifurcated market where higher-quality issuers termed out the 2026鈥2028 maturity wall while leveraged names faced tighter access. With spreads near multi-year lows, carry - not further compression - remains the dominant return driver into 2H'26.